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20130206
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CNBC
Jan 28, 2013 7:00pm EST
to grow the economy, shrink government and create confidence that we are not greece. and, oh, heck, my friend steve kroft lobbed a bunch of softballs at president obama and hillary clinton in his "60 minutes" interview last night. and you know what, folks, we still do not know what happened on that tragic, awful night in benghazi when four people were killed. the administration spun two separate stories, we still don't know the narrative. all that, the "kudlow report" starts right now. >>> first up tonight, it could prove to be the most significant immigration reform in years. bipartisan group of four democratic and four republican senators unveiling their blueprint this afternoon for border security, guest worker cards, more foreign brainiacs and employer verification, maybe even a path to citizenship. cnbc's own eamon javers joins us now with the details. good evening, eamon. >> well, we've almost gotten out of practice at watching bipartisan groups of senators hold press conferences here in washington. that's not something we're used to seeing. in recent months, anyway. but the sena
CNBC
Jan 30, 2013 7:00pm EST
? the private economy did well up 3.4%. it was the government economy that fell. i would like to see us finishing the spending cuts of the government. shrink the government more. grow the private economy by 5%. that is my vision. now there is more bad news for new jersey senator bob menendez as the fbi raids the offices of one of his close financial backers. will it present key evidence in the alleged prostitution scandal surrounding the senator. it's all unconfirmed but the potential legal fallout is huge. >>> israel takes no chances. the air force launches two air strikes in syria preventing the assad regime from transporting chemicals and weapons of mass destruction to hezbollah. if the red line is crossed israel will attack again. we cover it all. "the kudlow report" begins now. first up we learned today the fourth quarter gdp fell slightly, much to everybody's surprise. so the white house is blaming republicans for the fiscal tax cliff and the spending sequester which i think is hilarious. they invented the sequester. we have had tax, spend and regulate policies for four years. why
CNBC
Jan 30, 2013 3:00pm EST
the point. rick, is your point that this weak economic report we got today shows the economy is truly weak, or are you agreeing with the consensus that it shows that government spending was the reason for the weakness? >> no. i'm saying government spending isn't really addressing some of the main issues of weakness, and when did we -- when did we have an amendment saying we're banning recessions. if the economy is destined to be smaller to get healthy, let it happen. >> but hold on, rick. what was interesting about this report to my mind was that consumer spending and business spending actually held up in the face of government spending. >> that's a wonderful thing, and i like that thing. >> it reilly should be for investors the one of figuring out in a world that looks like it will be one of declining government spending, what will happen to private sector spending and investment? >> it will reallocate the capital better. >> hey, rick, you're not going to get the end result that you think you will. nothing makes sense. i agree 100%. guess what's going to happen? we're going to get a housi
CNBC
Jan 29, 2013 7:00pm EST
have 11 million people in this country undocumented. that is not good for this country or the economy. that is not going to disappear. we have to face that reyagity. i say, i like senator vitter on many issues. i disagree on this issue. i think we start taxing these people. they are already benefiting from the social serve thes and encase system. so let's tax them. from a security point of view, this is helpful and i think that this is not an amnesty. you are letting people go of a crime. these people are going to have are to pay taxes and crimes. i cthink it is a brilliant program. the only thing stopping it is president obama if he does not agree to it. >> if this does not have border security in it. the republican party, to me, if you give the free flow of immigration for workers, there can still be border security, there could be -- right? anybody who wants to come for legitimate reason ares wants to come. >> right. >> larry, can i ask a question? >> what i want to say, all right i'll direct it tow. the gop should be the party of growth and opportunity and the party of entrepreneu
CNBC
Jan 30, 2013 4:00pm EST
market. the first half is going to face some pretty big headwinds from the economy, so i'm cautious about the next few months here. >> cautious about the next few months, so does that translate into taking money out of stocks? is this rally that we've been seeing, even though we saw fractionial losses today, is it justified given these expectations that you think the economy turns downward? >> i think if you look just at the earnings picture and ignore what's going on in washington, the markets should be up even more. i mean, there's plenty of room for stocks to rally, and i do think once we get past this miss call austerity the rally will resume. we have to keep in mind that the market up until now has not seen really weak data, and it's about see some very soft consumption numbers. have you a $200 billion tax increase this year and a $110 billion sequester. these are not small fiscal tight things. it means that first and second quarter are going to be very weak. it's no longer going to be talking about the risks of the fiscal cliff. we're actually getting about half of the fiscal cliff,
CNBC
Jan 30, 2013 4:00am EST
. >>> first up, spanish economy contracted more than forecast with gdp down 1.8% annually, .7% from the previous quarter. analysts were looking for a smaller 1.7% drop over last year. speaking after the release, the spanish prime minister, mariano rajo, planned to announce new stimulus measures shortly. joining us are sarah perez fruitos, manager at brunswick capital, and sarah foley. add the gdp number to the awful retail sales, forecasts now that spain will still be in contraction in 2014, i don't see how it's at all possible the spanish government is going to meet -- they'll set out revised budget targets. i don't see how they'll meet any of them. >> really, the t's about the figures that we knew this morning. basically because last quarter we have an increase on the vat taxes and really we pass from the bat from 70% four years ago to 21% now in the last quarter. really as you say, the retail -- the consumer has fallen down dramatic. we need to remember that the public employees has cut their extra payment from the christmas extra payment. and this situation with no more extra fo
CNBC
Feb 1, 2013 3:00pm EST
. >> what's the difference? i don't think it's necessarily a reflection of an economy that's also gaining momentum. i think that the economy is more moving sideways at this point than anything. there are other underlying reasons for the equity market to perform as well as it has and part that have is, of course, central bank policy, but, you know, i know it makes for a neat little discussion, but ultimately i'm more concerned about the economics of this, and the economics of this is we're moving sideways, not gaining much momentum at this point. >> that's what we're seeing, a choppy situation when it comes to the actual fundamentals and it's really about the federal reserve and why so much money is moving into the market. the question is do you think it's sustainable, given the fact that so far fundamentals have not mattered. what does 2013 lock like? >> i heard some equity strategists say s&p 1,700, an while fundamentally i'd love to toss that person out the window, practically speaking i think why not? why can't you get there, because at the end of the day, we're not being driven by fun
CNBC
Feb 5, 2013 6:00am EST
. china is back and we're seeing the managed triumph of an economy. is that your take? >> pretty clear to me. through wrought the whole concerns about china, which, of course, went on and off all the way through until the late autumn, i was very skeptical about that and i thought we were managing things pretty well. so i was and i remain very relaxed and we'll get the next sets of chinese data in the next week or so. and i'm pretty sure it will show further evidence of china bouncing a bit. .more importantly, that china is slowly adjusting to an economy not so dependent on exports or government investment. and that's what they need and that's what we all want from them. and that is pretty important. >> jim, is it your thought that people should at this point just kind of hold off and pull back and wait and see what happens over the next several months instead of sell in may and go away, is this sell in february and go away? >>. i prefer the sell in may and go away. it has a remarkable rhythm to it. and the fact that a couple of other things successfully passed in january, it's the firs
CNBC
Jan 30, 2013 2:00pm EST
is how they characterize the economy. it can have its own self fulfilling prophecy but they are also very concerned in the beltway that sequestering will go forward. the consequence us is iy high they will move forward with spending cuts. very aggressive ones on march 1 and that will have, in addition to the fiscal drag, higher taxes. that will hurt the economy which may have to prompt the fed to do more. how they characterize the economy is critical. as i said, they are cognizant about it not be a self fulfilling prophecy. also, esther george is voting and she will be with her predecessor from kansas city this time around as well. >> when you consider the huge reaction and the discussion of how hawkish the minutes are, they are try to get it very, very straight. >> i think they talk about it the last several days. i'm not sure we will see much in terms of the announcement of the minutes. i think they recognize that all asset markets are artificially priced and dependent on the ability of their monetary policy but the time that it takes to do so and how long the fed stays low and how long
CNBC
Jan 29, 2013 4:00pm EST
to see how they characterize the economy, whether they are getting more comfortable with it now that we have the biggest piece of the fiscal cliff out of the way or whether they are still concerned that employment is sluggish an inflation is tracking kind of low. >> yeah. i mean, we have an economic that's improving but not necessarily gangbusters here to necessarily illustrate or justify this huge movement to stocks. ryan dietrich, what's your take on this in terms of technical strategy? what do the charts look like you to? >> we ton to see what's happened this year and see a lot of similars with last year. we rallied virtually 45 degrees until april and seeing a lot of thins. early in the year, a lot of bulls come in, stocks in mutual funds. doesn't mean the market has to peak. a lot of people are saying that. seasonality-wisebrua usually strong when you have a strong january and march and april, the two strongest months the last five years, up 3.5% on afternoon. all in all coupled with the pact that short interest currently on s&p 500 components is actually higher right now and trimm
CNBC
Jan 31, 2013 7:00pm EST
economy really slumping? and how stupid is it for the president to dissolve his jobs council, which by the way was nothing more than business window dressing anyway. at least today congress did pass a debt ceiling extension so we won't go bankrupt immediately. joining me now, cnbc chief international correspondent michelle caruso cabrera and laffer. i want to ask you about this whole business. government spending on defense really collapsed and helped bring down yesterday's gdp. >> yes, it did. >> so all the liberals are saying see, we told you so, if you cut spending, you're going to ruin the economy. do you believe that? >> no, not at all. government spending is taxation. milton always said it. the government redistributes resources. you can see it really clearly. two-person world, farmer a and farmer b, if farmer b gets unemployment benefits, who do you think pays for them, farmer a? you know, government spending is taxation. the reason we have the great recession is because of the government spending, not in spite of it. >> follow-up. it would be bullish for economic growth. >>
CNBC
Feb 1, 2013 9:00am EST
, minus one, plus one. all that is a power point. our economy is sluggish today, and there's no reason for it. we have a wonderful country. we have great resources, we still have a free world, the opportunity to move forward. here's my message to the leadership in washington, get in the game. >> thank you. >> join us on monday. have a great weekend. "squawk on the street" starts right now. >>> we have breaking news on this jobs friday. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm melissa lee, with carl quintanilla and david faber. we're closing in on 14,000. a leg higher in futures just moments ago. the dow looking at 112 points at the open. the s&p 500 looking at about 11 at the open. of course, this is after the best month for january, since january of 1987. as for the picture over in europe, taking the lead from here in the united states in terms of gains, we do see the cap up by 1.3%, and the dax in germany up .6 of 1%. in asia, the real star is the nikkei, embarking on 12-week winning streak with the yen weakening down to 92 versus the u.s. dollar. of course, the road map here starts wi
CNBC
Feb 5, 2013 7:00pm EST
annual by march 1st, we need to do something smaller in the name of staving off damage to the economy, to consumer, and to federal workers. here's the president. >> if congress can't act immediately on a bigger package, about they can't get a bigger package done by the time the sequester is scheduled fto go into effect, then i believe they should at least pass a smaller package of spending cuts and tax reforms that would delay the economically damaging effects of the sequester for a few more months until congress finds a way to replace these cuts with a smarter solution. >> now, of course the fundamental barriers separating the two sides on either a short term or long term deal is that president says it needs to be balanced as he calls it including both spending cuts and tax increases through closing loopholes. republicans say it has to be only intending cuts. and unlike the fiscal cliff where the president had the advantage, this is one where republicans have that advantage. if nothing happens, all the sequester cuts take effect although it was designed that neither party likes them.
CNBC
Feb 1, 2013 2:00pm EST
price answers that's because a 4% treasury rate would be reflective of a strong every economy with modest inflation. once you get above 4%, more and more of the increase is attributable to inflation increase. right now inflation san problem for us and so real growth would drive interest rate higher and probably drive equities higher. >> so if you're right aep the tou powers higher or we pit 4% of the ten-year, there's your sell signal? >> i would definitely call that a sell signal, brian. i think if we get much -- i think if we got much above 2 .3/4% on the ten-year, i would would want to visit my note. >> before do you think the ten year will end up at the end of this year. we will prob somewhere close to where we are today. maybe slightly higher. and i think in 20014 we are probably going owe see it move meaningful higher, maybe in the neighborhood of 3% or so. >>. >> thank you for being on the show. >> thank you. >> are you feeling wealthier? we will dig into who is benefitting from this rally. >> plus, netflix's house of wards. why the big $100 bill million bet is getting
CNBC
Jan 31, 2013 2:00pm EST
environment. and i think a lost investors are underestimating the strength of the market and the economy. we had an good gdp -- >> and the number-doctor. >> for fourth quarter. we can ceci 2% with multiple extensions and descent earnings. the markets can do well. >> what do you like? ? >> we think that -- >> too late to get in then? >> not too late. housing turned in 2012. stocks have been extremely well, but we are coming off the housing declining. and we think that housing stocks have a lot further to go the next couple of years. >> i will pinpoint, how do you play housing then? >> you either play in a deversefide manner pb homeowners and is you lie chain, even home delot. and eagle materials supplying, building supplies forth commercial andes have den rnl. you look at a lot of the secretary poerps we think it'll do well as housing just continue to put better and better numbers going forward. >> you are playing more defense, aren't you? >> i think the emerging markets have more room to run. i think retail could not be as -- having to brace as fully as they should given the economy of emerg
CNBC
Feb 1, 2013 4:00am EST
. >> and is steady as she goes, the u.s. economy is expected to keep up the recent trend of modesty of unspectacular job growth in january. >>> plus, the dutch finance minister warns of a worsening deficit this year, this after the government is forced to bail out local banks after a bailout of 3.7 million euros. >>> we kick off with the pmis out of the eurozone. january manufacturing pmi, 47.9. the flash 47.5, december manufacturing pmi was 46.1. it has boosted the euro to maintain its gaze, now back over to 1.3651 and continuing to climb high. that is now a 32-month high against the yen, as well, at 11.25965. the german manufacturing pmi was a little better, as well, this morning. helping to boost those numbers. we suggest that there's benefits from emerging markets rather than, perhaps, from elsewhere in europe. anyway, coming in better once again for the eurozone. still in contraction territory, but, of course, the trend is what is being concentrated on. we had similar indicators for two die verging views on china's recovery. eases to 50.4 for january, that was below the forecast of 5079 the. bu
CNBC
Jan 31, 2013 3:00pm EST
is tomorrow. of course, we had that gdp report which showed that we took a step back in terms of the economy, but the federal reserve easy money is really the catalyst here driving money into stocks. how important the employment numbers tomorrow, and what are you expecting, josh brown? >> i think they are important, and i think there's a pretty decent correlation between improving metrics from several jobs reports and the market. i want to go back and correct something. it's not the january effect. it's the january barometer when you're talking about whether or not january has predictive powers for the rest of the year, and actually it's one of the better market sayings, as go january, so goes the year. it's got -- it's got a correlative effect that something like 75% or 80%. the problem is nobody tells you when you're in the 20%, and it's not going to work, but i think what's key here, and rick touched on it. this is maybe the most important question for the market right now because we know the fed is on hold, and we're out of earnings season. all that matters is fun flows and is whether or
CNBC
Jan 31, 2013 4:00am EST
. >> and when you consider what happened is in the german economy in the fourth quarter, the headline gdp figures disappoint and yet the employment data looks okay. >> which is one of those things. we'll cure our eyes on the reaction to that. plenty of news to come, as well. plenty to come on the show. let's remind you what is on today. it's all about financials not just in europe and japan, but in india where the country's biggest lender has just posted number peps we'll be out to mumbai for a breakdown. >>> and what are the traders saying? at 10:45 european time, we'll have our eyes on stocks from the london trading floor. >> other indices around the world posted record indices around the world in january. >> and we'll explain more in a little bit. >>> first, deutsche bank shares are trading higher today after the group reported strong operating performance for its divisions in the fourth quarter, despite posting a heavy loss. the german euro booked a 1 million litigation charge which led to restructuring. in an analyst call, it was said the group does not need to issue more sales but l
CNBC
Jan 30, 2013 6:00am EST
their first meeting of 2013. investors watching carefully for any change in strategy to boost the economy. blackberry 10, research in motion is unveiling its latest and greatest device in hopes of saving the battered company. boeing, the dow component releasing quarterly results around 7:30 a.m. eastern time. we will have instant reaction and more on the dreamliner battery drama. and last but not least, the bulls going on another run. the dow jumping another 72 points to close just 46 points away from 14,000, just 210 points away from its all-time closing high. we have a big lineup covering the rally, the fed, and the economy this morning. >>> ed keon of quantitative management associates and dan greenhouse of btig will be serving up the markets for us. fed watchers will join us at 7:40 a.m. moody's chief economist, mark zanby will have the adp report at 8:15. >>> former national bureau chief marty feld stein will wrap it up at 8:40 a.m. eastern time. a big lineup. andrew, over to you. >> thank you. >>> the big news, the national transportation safety board is asking boeing for a full his
CNBC
Jan 30, 2013 12:00pm EST
say is happening to the economy? would you say this is the economy on the verge of ooh recession or an economy that's chugging along and not doing too badly? >> you'd say the latter. not doing too badly and it is chucking along. >> let's call up the chart we just had up and show you how we got to negative. do we have it? there it is. there you go. 1.52. all these numbers here add up to 0.14. this is the contribution of gdp from the critical mack rowe sectors of the economy. consumers add 1.5% to gdp. business. government taking off 1.3. this was the worst die klein in national defense spending since 1972. okay? what's going on here? really there's an interesting side note here which is why the street can't do a better job and i mean the forecasters figuring out what's going to happen with defensemen. there were some guys who understood it. the guys who do the bottoms-up stuff seem to have done a better job. >> let me ask you this. will the fed be as dismissive so to speak as the numbers today as the market appears to be? you know what i mean. the market doesn't seem to care about
CNBC
Feb 1, 2013 7:00pm EST
that gdp report. the gdp report it looked like who knows? whenever an economy shrinks, usually it's like kosh roaches, not just one, usually you get another negative quarter coming soon. so this kind of reassures us maybe there's going to be upward revision in that fourth quarter gdp report. so things look okay, we're creating jobs, but as you said, job growth is still really, really slow. listen, to get -- remember, we want to get back to like that 5% rate maybe. at this pace it will take 100 months to get back to 5%. so listen, maybe okay, you don't have to worry about a recession, but if you're looking for strong growth we're not seeing it yet. >> this is still -- we're going to bring in somebody from the joint economic committee in a second. this is still the worst modern recovery in gdp and jobs going back to 1947, no matter how you slice it. but i think the upper revisions really helped trigger the market. let's get a second opinion on today's jobs stories and the outlook for the economy. here we have a republican response. south carolina republican congressman nick mulvaney. he's
CNBC
Feb 5, 2013 1:00pm EST
. >> i checked those numbers on 7%, with or without inflation, i'm not sure the economy's long-term growth at 7%. >> we're not growing at 7%. it makes sense stock market grows 7% a year, that's within the range of what it's done. i think it's great to say 10 years out this is where it's going to be. investing is very dynamic, not static. >> remember, ron is one of the classic long-term buys, long-term buy, that's his whole attitude. don't expect him to come out and give short-term recommendations. >> if you're bullish on the market and long-term investor, let's hope he's right. >> i hope he's right. >> we'll see you later. ty, up to you. >> thank you, sue. it is official what we've been reporting for days. dell is going to go private in a $24.4 billion deal. there's ts to cross and is to do the. michael dell and his partner, private equity silver lake paying $13.41, microsoft chipping in long $2 billion to the venture. what does this mean for the pc? is it the death knell of the pc? john with that story. >> reporter: tyler, dell was the darling tech stock of the '90s, defining
CNBC
Jan 30, 2013 9:00am EST
in april. >> we do begin with a stunning gdp report. the economy contracted to 0.1% in the fourth quarter. first decline since 2009. this as we remain on dow 14,000 watch. the index is fewer than 46 points away from that mark. which hasn't been reached since october 2007. the dow component boeing rising pre-market. it earned $1.28 a share in the fourth quarter, beating wall street estimates. it expects no significant impact from any faa directives involving its 787 dreamliner, and is maintaining its production and delivery forecast. let's get to the gdp number. it is apparent that the economy came to somewhat of a screeching halt in the last two months of the year. >> i think cnbe played a big role. i'll calis a one off number. the reason i call it a one off number is there are way too many companies who reported during this period that did not see this level up -- well, let's just say no growth whatsoever. >> decline. that being said, it may be a one off, but it's still a bit surprising, if not scary. >> well, does it not say that the fed's been right in what it's been doing. >> it does.
CNBC
Feb 5, 2013 4:00pm EST
proxy for the overall economy. find out how the dow and your investments will be impact the by that release and after the numbers we eke talk. >>> plus, president obama is asking congress to come up and new tax revenues in order to help the deficit. we'll have a conversation with represent dave camp coming up later in the program. stay with us. m charles schwab... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 gives me tools that help me find opportunities more easily. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can even access it from the cloud and trade on any computer. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and with schwab mobile, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 i can focus on trading anyplace, anytime. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 until i choose to focus on something else. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 all this with no trade minimums. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and only $8.95 a trade. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 open an account with a $50,000 deposit, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and get 6 months commission-free trades. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-866-294-5411. more "likes." more tweets. so, beginning today, my son brock and his whole team will be our new senior social media str
CNBC
Feb 4, 2013 3:00pm EST
this economy actually do not justify this incredible run for this market. we're going to hear both sides coming up on "the closing bell." >> we will. plus a realtime check on clorox's company earnings. they're up br thnt and sitting at its all-time high right now. >>> let's check the markets for you. dow down about 99 points. off of the lows which were about 2:30 or so. 30 minutes ago on the industrial average. now back to 13,910. check the nasdaq composite where it's down about 37 points. and the s&p 500 looks like this with a decline on the session of just about 13 points. >> okay. so in today's selloff we're backing away from the all-time high on the dow set back in '07. we have danny hughes back with us from devine capital. michael holland as i live and breathe. >> blast from the past. >> mike shay from direct access on the floor with us. and our own rick santelli is in chicago. michael, i'm starting with you. you don't have sweaty palms with this selloff today? >> no. and i was saying with michael shay before we got down here, is i have friends who are short the market or out of the market
CNBC
Jan 31, 2013 6:00am EST
, it says here? let's get a read on the state of the economy. at least it wasn't a -- that kind of rein. there's three of them. anyway, joining us for the next hour is bob bruska. that's fao -- >> no. you cannot. >> fao economics. as becky said at the top, things are going to go really well or the market is going to have an '87 crash. >> i like the binary outlook. >> everything you said was so good until you gout to that point. >> he usually wears one of these very clever ties. >> i'm not going to give him any -- >> there you go, joe. >> you didn't forget because you are getting up there. >> up there? >> close to his age. >> i have to put it out the night before. >> i lay my clothes out the night before, too. >> do you, really? >> oh, yeah, me, too. well, my wife is sleeping. i have to do that. >> all right. so did you, when you saw the down 0.1, what was your -- did you immediately explain it away? did you express shock, chagrin, angle, denial? >> no, i don't have an ee morm attachment to gdp -- >> you cover it long enough, and i cannot say that i don't have an emotional attachment to
CNBC
Feb 1, 2013 1:00pm EST
economies led by china. finally, the fed successfully engineering a modest increase in interest rates without unleashing run away inflation. i know, tall orders. >> this is a tall order, bob. >> but this would create a huge boost of business confidence. capital expenditures and hiring would increase and revenues would rise. finally, sue, on a day when the dow passed 14,000, it is forth while noting that the last time the dow passed 14,000, valuations were much higher with the ratio for the s&p at that time was 22. about 14 right now. what does that mean? well, historic average for the s&p 500 is 15, it means the market was way overvalued, sue, in 2007. today it is somewhat underval i'd. steve pointed this out to me. i think it a very good point. tip of the hat to you, steve. market overvalued then in 2007. not the same market. >> i'm exhausted listening to him. >> it is. somebody has it put the big picture in it and bob did that very nicely. how do you feel about the market at this point. >> it is almost ill logical because they are celebrating that the jobs report is good but not so
CNBC
Feb 5, 2013 9:00am EST
of time. the economy's growing about 7% a year. including inflation. and how long is that going to take? if you grow 7% a year, that means you double your money every ten years. that means if the stock market is 14,000 now, it could be 28,000 in ten years, and it could be 50,000 or 60,000 in 20 years. >> nice long-term bullish view of the markets. not just for the six months or even the next year. >> you compare it to bonds, which is what he's doing, you feel pretty darn good. it's also -- there's a lot of good chatter about pension plans being so far behind. i would love it, just in terms of companies being able to return money, if they were less worried about pension plans. that kind of talk makes me maybe embolden pension plans to say, let's get a little more risky and maybe we can pay off. that's also going to be very important for stock valuations. >> right. it's going to be another flow of funds into the market from the pensions, not only from the individuals which we've seen. i mean, did you catch vanguard's flows for the month of january? $24.8 billion coming into vanguard's. >>
CNBC
Feb 4, 2013 6:00am EST
a month. that takes a year. and this is what -- and they're putting that much money back in the economy each month. this is very powerful stuff. we're seeing, you know, further expansion in bank lending. i think today in the loan officer's survey from the fed, you're going to see further easing and bank lending standards which we have found to be a pretty good leading indicator of the overall economy. >> bank loan portfolios year on year were up 80 basis points. that's less than 1%. and there's still a huge credit impairment in the mortgage part of the market, which is roughly 50% of bank balance sheets. again, those issues are fannie and freddie mispricing the risk on the high end, fha mispricing the risk on the low end. no requirement in the game roles. that's where you need -- when you look at the senior loan officers survey, that's where you see -- >> i want to ask you a question, macro question. if you had a choice, let's say you had one of those time machine things and you could take the global macro environment for dow 14,000 in october 2007, or the global macro environment for d
CNBC
Feb 4, 2013 7:00pm EST
will not hurt this economy. let's not push our luck. republicans will block it. we'll be right back. ♪ if loving you is wrong ♪ i don't wanna be right [ record scratch ] what?! it's not bad for you. it just tastes that way. [ female announcer ] honey nut cheerios cereal -- heart-healthy, whole grain oats. you can't go wrong loving it. >>> stock market correction today. i still believe rising profits and an easy fed will keep the bull market going -- at least until the president tax bombs us to death again. that's what obama said before the super bowl yesterday which could be the real reason the markets sold off today. another big tax hike on investors. here now is dave goldman from fixed income research at bank of america, president of macro strategy and don luskin chief investment officer at. you get all wound up in the europeans thing, the prime minister may have been on the take for construction money. what do i know? why do i care about that? that doesn't mean anything to me. >> i agree. spain is not a systemic threat. it's too small to bring the rest of europe down. we have asian centered
CNBC
Feb 5, 2013 12:00pm EST
-time high, one thing to focus is the ceo said luxury divisions are all moving higher the overall economy. >> the justice basically saying wire fraud, mail fraud, any kind of fraud based on how they assess those assets back in 2008 and behind. i was trading this one aggressively today, it's not in the options, it's all in the stork. >> what were you doing? >> i bought it and sold it a couple of times today because it broke down all the way through $46, traded up to almost $48 again, that's a real nice range, now it's breaking back down, eight times normal volume, judge, and the institutions are held big-time. >> all right, the virtual doctor doing some real activity in the market. >>> a drop for promotions, most of baltimore -- gardeners furniture said if a raven returned -- shoppers would score their promotion free of charge. they do have insurance, in fact they do say an insurance policy will cover most of the losses. >> as we head to break, take a look at apple at session highs, helping the nasdaq. >>> coming up on the half, after a massive run over the past year, is toll brothers hitt
CNBC
Feb 5, 2013 2:00pm EST
in spending and from the broader american economy. here is the president. >> if congress can't act immediately on a bigger package, if they can't get a bigger package done by the time the sequester is scheduled to go into effect, then i believe they should at least pass a smaller package of spending cuts and tax reforms that would delay the economically damaging effects of the sequester for a few more months until congress finds a way to replace these cuts with a smarter solution. >> what we're seeing here, brian, is a continued transition from a big bang approach to budget negotiations and the potential threat to the economy toward lower stakes, lower pressure negotiations over smaller deals. they did a small deal to avoid the fiscal cliff. congress, the house republicans stepped up and put off the rise in the debt limit or the reaching of the debt limit for a couple of months to mid may. now the president propose to deescalate the fight p by pushing it into the future. if that's successful, keep making progress in increments that could have a positive effect. on the other hand if it ultimate
CNBC
Feb 5, 2013 4:00am EST
the economy at the european level. there's a trend on twitter tweeting for the -- the contractions for rajoy reject and that's on the right very well the situation here in spain. since the case, the corruption case was reported by the newspaper a few days ago. rajoy lost six points in the opinion polls in approval ratings. he is now amid 24%. that being said, the leader, the socialist leader of the opposition remains in terms of rating. so even if there's a lot of pressure on rajoy, there's now not any alternative in shape. that's the reason why the worry in the market. that's the reason for the decline today on the ibex 35. >> stephane, thanks for that. the bond, is it driven by political uncertainty, of course, but the pmi is up this morning for spain, up 47. but the employment pmi, down to 42 and that's back from the low since this time last year. >> i don't like the numbers. if you'd asked me six months ago, i would have probably said possibility of spanish growth falling off the cliff, low. 10%, maybe. now if you ask me, i'd say low but probably 30% and rising. the markets need to facto
CNBC
Jan 29, 2013 4:00am EST
deficit target if the economy continues to contract. that's precisely what we are expecting because for the fourth quarter, we are expecting the spanish gdp to shrink by 0.4%. for the time being, spain has a deficit target of 4.5% for 2013. that seems to be really ambitious if not out of reach. because to meet this new target, the government would need to find $20 billion of additional euro cut. that won't help the spanish economy to go out of recession. for that reason, oli rehn thinks spain will need some incentive from stimulus measure toes improve its economy and boost its labor market. >> it has to be complemented with policies to help the unemployed find new work or training opportunities. it's important for our financial sector to give credit so they can invest and create jobs. and it will be important to maintain the fiscal consolidation. >> and the stimulus measures are indeed on the agenda. the prime minister will make an announcement on the 20th of february with a package to boost the economy and help small and medium tax breaks. we know after austerity comes the time for
CNBC
Feb 4, 2013 4:00am EST
of the economy. >>> after that, of course, the super bowl wasn't just one of the on biggest sporting events of the year, it was one of the biggest days of the year for madison avenue. we'll take a look at which ads were touchdowns and were ads were fumbles. >> mariana rajoy meets angela merkel. >>> plus, upcoming elections that sylvia berlusconi has called his last great electoral and political battle. >>> the power to split up uk banks if they fail to -- activity. george osborne is expected to give the bank of england the responsibility to make sure banks are involved in these activities. you have to love the extended analogy. watch the george osborne speech live here at 10:30 local for those of you here with us in the uk. in the meantime, there are more charges at the top over at barclay's. last night, the bank's financial chief and financial chief announced their leaving. tomorrow, barclay's ceo anthony jenkins will face questions in parliament over banking standards and next week he will present his long awaited plans for transforming the bank. >>> and a number of stories about rbs also
CNBC
Feb 1, 2013 6:00am EST
number. we're warning, does it necessarily mean that the market has been wrong about the economy? or was it the one off and was it, you know, some special factors that caused that shrinkage and does it get revised back up and subsequent reports? i've heard a lot of places. this is the best negative gdp report. >> well, if you're going to have to pick a negative one, this would be it. >> but there was a lot of good stuff. >> it doesn't startle the market at all when it came out. >> i don't know whether they're whistling past the grape yard -- the mark was over a contraction, but not negative. >> they were looking for growth of 1%. >> so it was expected to be -- to go down. no one thought it would be negative. but if you're looking for 1% and you minus a tenth -- >> it's off by one. >> you think it's going to hit the unemployment rate? there's a big debate. >> i have no idea. >> i it probably won't this time around -- >> plus one or zero is not a big difference. the reality is you need 3% gdp growth. >> that's assuming that he needs an introduction. >> you're right, he doesn't. thi
CNBC
Jan 31, 2013 9:00am EST
in the economy for the first time since 2009. the s & p 500 is up more than 5% so far this month. very, very strong month. >> what can you say? this is a great bull market. it is. i mean, the averages went up big. transports led us, okay. could we go for a breather? it would make sense, but the fed is not stopping. it's not stopping the fed. >> s & p keeps putting out these historical numbers, a 5% gain in january and years like that, just going back to '50, 1950, 31% for the year, 27, 26, 31, 45. i mean, just -- does this year hold that potential. >> hear siegel this morning, i know there's controversy, even on this deck, about -- >> for the long term. >> he did call the top. >> he loved housing you and -- my god, i'm sorry. >> my dad's building, the society of towers. >> since the last time we had the gapes, '07, 12-month forward pe is 15. back then, it was 9. we are not overpriced necessarily, given the run that we had. >> keeps rates down, competition from bonds, not so great. i still can't get over that they preserve thafd dividend low tax rate these are bond equivalents, a lot of stock
CNBC
Feb 1, 2013 4:00pm EST
this market lower? we know there's no great shakes to talk about with the economy. sure, we have a better situation in housing and corporate cash is strong. still got real pockets and real issues and uncertainties. >> no, no, there are. >> what's the catalyst? >> robert schiller was saying even the housing rally doesn't look at strong to him as people think. he's serving customers rather than speculators saying people aren't really that much more bullish on housing so even the housing thing may not have the legs that people think. >> but, you know, harry, own if the housing doesn't have the thing, it's still improving. we've still got jobless rates going down and quite frankly i think qe3 is working, and as long as we don't have job raise go below 6.5 the pump will pump up this thing like an old athlete on steroid. >> basis points are up despite qe3. that's not working. >> those are long rates only and that's because there's less risk aversion out there. people want more risky assets. this doesn't make the commercial banking system heal and get the money velocity working. >> stephanie lin
CNBC
Jan 29, 2013 6:00am EST
say the says holding back the economy, the federal reserve is holding back the economy. >> steve liesman will be along at 7:30 eastern. i don't think he would buy into that. we will be here with the release of cnbc's exclusive fed survey. and from the better late than never file, the senate has approved the long delayed $50.5 billion aid package for the vikt manies of superstorm sandy. the approval comes three months after the storm ravaged the east coast destroying thousands of homes and is business in new york and connecticut and new jersey. nine republicans joined democrats in voting yes on the measure. now president obama must sign it into law, which he is expected to do. senate leaders held up the aid and for wrangling' over the new rules, filibusters and some pork in there and all kinds of stuff. andrew asked me today -- i love this. is it okay to wear a jacket? it's fine to wear a jacket when you want to because of -- he goes, look, this shirt needs a jacket. that begs the question, where do you wear a shirt that needs a jacket to cover it up? >> because it's a different l
CNBC
Jan 29, 2013 9:00am EST
anymore. you look at the economy and it looks like the market is taking off. maybe a new sense that the ceo world is figuring out, i'm going to figure it out on my own. >> the hardest thing is that politics and business intersecting doesn't work. they do things for noneconomic reasons. somebody said in europe, they don't care about -- they're going to keep europe together. the u.s., i think entitlement reform is serious. i think they have a couple weeks to work this out. >> barry, thank you so much. it's been a pleasure talking to you today. >> thank you. >> that does it for us today. make sure you join us tomorrow. right now it's time for "squawk on the street." >>> good morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm melissa lee, along with carl quintanilla, jim cramer and david faber at the new york stock exchange. the new home price reports were just released. s&p's david blitzer will join us to break these numbers down moments from now. let's get a check on futures. and how we are setting up, this after the s&p ended its eight-day rally. it managed to hold above the 1,500
CNBC
Feb 1, 2013 12:00pm EST
to monitor to the extent to which markets move away from the way economies perform because that will set up dangers in the future. >> you have to admit, the economy save for the shockingly disappointing gdp report seems to be performing better whether it's construction site, housing side, manufacturing side. some of the other metrics. even the employment side with the strong revisions that we got. you'd be willing to admit that. >> what is really important is that this go beyond just financial assets. households lost about $16 trillion in the downturn. about 13 trillion has been recovered. almost entirely in financial assets. that's where the wealth effects are smaller than the housing market with 3 to 5 cents on the dollar versus 8 to 9. maybe in 2013, pimco's call is for recovery. in fact the first time in seven years pimco is expecting an upswing in the housing market. if it in fact continues then the wealth created in housing could become more important to the economy and sustained movement in financial markets but without that it will be more difficult to believe that markets can move
CNBC
Feb 4, 2013 12:00pm EST
of the economy continuing to produce upside surprises. the ism coming in stronger than expected, the labor market continues to be resilient and really the fourth quarter of this year producing 200,000 jobs in the face of the heightened period of fiscal cliff years. really shows -- really speaks to the resiliency of the domestic economy. yes, my target is 3% upside from current levels, i would suggest there is likely to be better upside risk than downside risk. >> what areas beyond technology would you want to be in here? >> what looks most attractive is the cyclical versus defensive valuation spread looks too wide. you have utilities trading at valuation premiums to the market. if the economy is getting better, if tail risks are starting to recede, you should see the cyclical sector continuing to outperform. i like the global cyclicals particularly. they have the most leverage to an upswing in asian economies which are also showing signs of improvement. so technology is my top pick. but industrials and materials aren't too far behind either. >> thanks for coming on. jeremy zarin from ubs. >> inte
CNBC
Jan 29, 2013 1:00pm EST
policy numbers kick off a two-day meeting today to discuss the economy and, of course, interest rates. where does wall street see the u.s. economy going from where we are today and what are the biggesthrea to the recovery? steve liesman fresh here with the results of the exclusive cnbc survey. take it away. >> really interesting results, tyler. i was not expecting this. one of the most important questions we ask month to month, what is the probability of recession in the next 12 months. you can see on the fiscal cliff debate shot up to 36%, came down during the winter and shot back up as we went back into the fiscal cliff and debt ceiling debate. it's come down markedly, 20.4%. that's the low as long as we've been asking this question and one of the big edrops we've seen. it comes in the next line as growth forecasts are rising. this the tail of the tape of the gdp forecast of our panelist. 52 responded this time around. you can see we started in march a year ago here. 2.74%. it's come down, down, down. it just shot up for the first time. not a big jump from 1.9 to 2.08. where are we
CNBC
Jan 31, 2013 1:00pm EST
light but i think that will improve as economy gradually improves. these guys have a share in home security business. reasonable valuation even though it had a nice move. >> man with a wall clock on his wrist. >> that's right. wall clock right there, baby. amn. february 31 calls short term trade but they are buying up these calls at about four times the open interest. i like the opening trade. >> let's get a quick look at the dow. last trading day of what's been a pretty good month, as you know, for stocks. there it is. dow under 13,900. making a march towards 14. hasn't been able to get there. we will continue to watch that. that does it for us. catch us tonight and on twitter. "power lunch" starts right now. >> "halftime" is over. second half of the trading day starts now. >> scott, thanks very much. knocking them down. which of these two brands do i have personal experience with? the department of justice or anheuser-busch? i ask you, ladies. you can decide. but the government said no to $20 billion beer deal with anheuser-busch and mexico's groupo modello. a huge day for market
CNBC
Jan 29, 2013 3:00pm EST
competitiveness we can have in the economy until we fix the debt overhang. what you're saying it lulls us into a complacent moment and people are saying, well, we've already done some deficit reduction, maybe we known the need for more. not cure. this is a cancer on our economy. we've got to fix a problem instead of waiting for marks to turn against us. we should do it while we have the luxury of time on our side as we do now. >> rolla, ceos from industries far and wide have been brought to the white house for meetings. they have met with leadership on both sides of the aisle, yet do you think that you guys, your fellow ceos are even fact oregon into the discussions, or is it all just lip service? yeah, we hear you. yeah, we're going to cut the deficit. yeah, we're going to do this but they don't do anything. >> i'm not really sure. what i do know is that watching this has just -- it seems like we're watching an accident in slow motion. there is no question that we have to put in place entitlement reform a chamging the tax code if we're going to have sustainable long-term economic xwroerk
CNBC
Jan 30, 2013 5:00pm EST
's get more on the gdp numbers, which investors seem to want to look for. our next guest says the economy is stronger than you think. michelle myers joins us on set for a deeper dive into the numbers. michelle, certainly, a lot of the factors, you can explain away this number all you want. >> yeah. >> at the end of the day, still uncertainty because of the fiscal cliff. if it will have an impact, what will sequestration do to the next number? >> that's a really good point. i think if we do see a sequestration kick in, probably would impact q-1 gdp, but it will impact q-. defense, if it's the defense cuts that we see, we'll certainly see further contraction in federalense spending and that will be a hit to the real economy. >> because of these, the fourth quarter numbers, the economy is stronger than you think. are there certain extrapolations like that contraction in the defense spending that we saw in the fourth quarter that may have been a little bit stronger than had been inanticipated that makes you rethink q-1, even? >> the way it was interpreting the report is that it is largely dis
CNBC
Jan 31, 2013 4:00pm EST
the u.s. markets are looking very solid. the underlying economy is looking terrific despite the gdp numbers, excuse me, and i think there's a lot of room for growth here. >> do you feel like the earnings story will get better going forward that maybe the last quarter was a trough in earnings and that we can improve. >> with earnings it's always improve we need to know and the visibility going forward what the problem is now. >> terry dolan, great to have you. >> thank you. >> be well. see you again soon. there goes the bell. the second hour of the "closing bell" is going to pick up in just a moment but it looks like the dow jones industrial average will have its best gain since 1994. at least that's how it looks right now. maria picks up the ball right now. >>> and it is 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is? hi, everybody. welcome back to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo on the floor of the new york stock exchange. what a month for the bulls. the dow industrials close the book on an historic january for the stock market. we are closing at the lows of the after
CNBC
Jan 29, 2013 2:00pm EST
trying to grow the american economy. we will meet a man, mandy, who dares to upgrade one of the most beaten down companies in the land. >> i believe not so unhappy about it either. the dow, zeroing in on that 14,000 level. that is the level to watch. about 47 points away. we have not traded there since october 17th, 2007. now we're just 1.5% away from hitting that mark. really just a hop, skip, and a jump. s&p meantime has been the real sleeper here, guys, kind of creeping up on us 12 straight sessions, including today, single digit moves. the longest in two years. the nasdaq meantime is having a bit more of a struggle today. the number of techs wrecked. we'll bring you more on that in a second. meantime, down to bob pisani on the floor of nyse. is 14,000 a psychological marker or is there anything more to this. bob? >> yes, it's a psychological marker. when you've got the public talking about the stock market again, thank heavens, for the first time in years, psychological marks become important. they can produce interest in buying. we're close. not just 14,000 but we're close to th
CNBC
Feb 4, 2013 9:00am EST
sensitive stocks that are cheap, they're underowned, and it looks like the global economy could actually outpace the u.s. this year, and for the next couple of years. >> savita we talked to a bunch of strategists this year who are, i would say, aggressive to -- i mean, mixed in terms of their defensive nature regarding sector allocation, that they might step on the accelerator later on in the year once we get past some of the d.c. deadlines and go more cyclical, go more economically sensitive. would your advice be to err on the side of aggressive? >> i think it's -- there's no better time to do it than now. the reason is that, you know, i think the market looks through a lot of these events. what i'm focusing on is growth for the second half. and like i said, cap x, i think that's a strong theme. we're starting to see companies signal they're going to spend some capital. that translates into growth in the second half. why not buy these stocks while they're still cheap instead of waiting until they run up a little bit. that's my accepsense. i think the short-term move, it's a risky strate
CNBC
Jan 30, 2013 1:00pm EST
and none of this is to argue that economy is in good shape, just better shape than the 0.1% indicates. to pick up on theme hurdles. we have to overcome demand offset certainly coming government spending cuts. will government boost inventories in the first quarter. business investments going and will consumer be hurt by payroll tax hikes. probably the best way to think about the economy now. you get there by averaging stronger than expected growth in third quarter. what's clear, is this report, think of it as the ghost of christmas future. if you cut back an gov spending, it mathematically approaches. it sets the stage and uncertainty associated with it for better growth in the future. tyler? >> steve, much to think about there. how are defense stocks reacting to the 22% reduction in defense spending by the government in the fourth quarter? jane wells has details in l.a. jane? >> tyler, defense spending down. after reporting descent guidance and returning lots of cash to investors, saying quote i can't recall a time of greater uncertainty. raising guidance but none of the
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